Prediction market presentation by Bo Cowgill from Google
One way for management to get data about the company is to ask its employees their opinion. Problem is, when they ask, we tend to tell them what they want to hear.
If you let people predict anonymously, they will tell the truth, because there is no down side, and they might win something. (A tee-shirt or their name on a leader board)
Google has prediction markets rolling with over 80,000 trades currently.
They have found that the bias of optimism from new employees causes a safer bet to be against Google.
Most people bet in the middle of five options, and the middle often lost. It would have been safer to bet high or low.
Information flows around a company.
Knowing data about employees, and their trading habits can tell us who was talking to whom.
They found that the biggest factor was the location employees are sitting.
This is ironic, because Google is trying to make non-local communicate easier.
Software like news futures can be used for creating the prediction market.
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