Monday, March 3, 2008

Prediction theory

If a boss asks a manager when a product will be ready to release, the manager will say 2 days... because s/he does not want to look bad.

If, instead, the boss says, hey, whoever predicts the day closest to the day the product is ready to release will win $500.00 (or whatever), the manager will guess 2 weeks.

In the later example, the boss gets the more realistic answer because the manager wants to win and does not feel that there is an expected answer.

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